by Retrosheet. The 2022 MLB season is finally here. 2022, 2021, 2022 MLB Pitching, 2022 MLB Batting, 2022 MLB Standings, 2022 MLB Attendance, 2022 MLB Rookies , . Projected AL East Standings: 1. The model's outlook of the AL Central is perhaps what differs from conventional wisdom the most in its projections. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and . ZiPS projects both the Mariners and Angels for 85 wins, putting the two clubs in a tie for the third AL Wild Card spot behind the Blue Jays and Rays. Now, the Red Sox also have Trevor Story, who should certainly enjoy teeing off the Green Monster. Justin Verlander is back and were expecting healthy seasons out of Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman. Theyll be better than the Pittsburgh Pirates, but at least we can say we like the outlook for Pittsburghs future. The Detroit Tigers farm system leads us to believe they are a future World Series contender, but the big leap isnt coming until 2023. Disappointment in 2021 compelled the New York Mets to spend even more money this offseason. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. The team has pieces that will help it win games, with Frankie Montas at the front of that rotation and top prospect Cristian Pache immediately slotting into the outfield with Ramon Laureano. Bellinger is coming off of a dreadful 2021 campaign that saw . 2022 MLB preseason predictions: World Series, MVP and Cy Young bets we're counting on this year. They have the best hitter of this generation in Mike Trout and the most talented player of all time in Shohei Ohtani, yet they continue to finish below .500. With considerable improvement expected from Ronald Acua Jr. and Ozzie Albies, ZiPS thinks Atlanta is in good shape, projecting the club for another tie with the Mets at 94 wins apiece. The top of the rotation remains dominant with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and the biggest weakness the bullpen was improved with the signings of Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia and Corey Knebel. It's always possible Aaron Nola gets back to ace level and Ranger Surez has all kinds of talent, possibly giving the Phillies a Big Three. After signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray for a combined $556 million in 2021, the Rangers inked Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi and Martn Prez and traded for Jake Odorizzi this offseason. and that rotation is littered with question marks after Joe Musgrove. Unfortunately, the Jacob deGrom injury is a massive blow. There has been a lot going on in the AL West since the 2021 season came to an end, and the model expects the standings to turn out about as one might expect. However, pitching is a major concern. Needless to say, our MLB predictions arent quite as high on the Boston Red Sox. Tip from Dean E. Smith Center is at 6:30 p.m. Ultimately, this is a total rebuild and the organization isnt thinking about the final MLB standings in 2022. Milwaukee has made the playoffs four years in a row, a streak that should continue as the Cardinals didn't do much to close the gap. They didn't re-sign Miley and traded away franchise icons Winker and Suarez in a salary dump before signing Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and trading for Mike Minor. Let's dig in on the "best team" part, though. AL EAST. I'm going to, once again, hammer the over on the highest total. Three were on pace in whatever the 2020 season was. The one thing missing is another quality outfielder to fill out the lineup. The Mets committed nearly $500 million to free agents this offseason, re-signing Edwin Daz and Brandon Nimmo while also inking Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Jos Quintana to replace departed starters deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. The model indicates that in a World Series against the NL, which is loaded with teams that boast top-line pitching staffs, Tampa Bay's staff is more likely to hold up in a series. The bullpen, which was already one of the best last year, improved with the signing of Kenley Jansen to join Will Smith, Tyler Matzek and AJ Minter. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. LAD Los Angeles Dodgers. However, the Yankees lineup could be without 60% of its production whenever it plays in Toronto. Printed from TeamRankings.com - 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. With Sean Manaea also gone, its even easier to predict fewer wins. Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver look like they could front Arizona's rotation at some point, but for now, those two spots belong to the more experienced Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner. Way Too Early MLB 2022 National League Standings Predictions. Get Paramount Plus today and watch live sports for an unbeatable price! If the rookies can play up to their projections and immediately become impact talents, this could be an underrated team in 2022. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The model isn't too favorable on them jumping right back into contention in 2022. Are the Braves even with the Mets, or way behind? MLB 2022 win totals: Predicting every team's record for the new season. These are the teams with the top odds: 1. MORE: The Sporting News' 2022 MLB Opening Day Power Rankings Here are predictions for the 2022 MLB season from TSN's panel of baseball experts. Landing Carlos Correa is a monumental upgrade at shortstop, improving this teams fielding and run production. Pittsburgh is waiting for the Mitch Keller breakout to happen this spring, he's shown glimpses that it could be on the way as the rotation starts to weave in younger arms like Bryse Wilson and Roansy Contreras. There just isnt enough talent around Reyes and Ramirez to make this a playoff-caliber lineup and that will prove costly over a full season. Back # WL Div GB # AL WL Pct GB # WL Div GB # Factoring in that advantage along with an electrifying Cardinals bullpen, elite defense and a sufficient lineup, we expect St. Louis in a Wild Card Game. And during the postseason, that anything-can-happen dynamic only grows stronger, with MLB's new, expanded format only increasing the number of potential outcomes. The model really likes the rotation with Steven Matz joining Adam Wainwright and Jack Flaherty, who could miss some time with a shoulder injury. 1 overall spot in the AL. Its not a huge surprise that ZiPS projects the Padres and Dodgers for the same record. The problem is so often health, and that is the concern the model has for the Angels. The Phillies enter the season probably, objectively, a worse team than both the Braves and Mets in the NL East. March 30, 2022. A complete list of this year's voters: . Below, we look at those 2022 World Series odds; be sure to check back for our MLB picks and predictions as the season ramps up. Get the most up to date picture of the 2023 MLB season standings. Way-Too-Early 2022 MLB Predictions. Alek Thomas should make his debut at some point in 2022 to join fellow young bats like Ketel Marte, Daulton Varsho and Carson Kelly. The fourth and final 2022-23 regular-season meeting in the Battle of Florida is set for Tuesday as the Florida Panthers head to Tampa to take on the Lightning and their No.1 home offense. The bottom line is the recent history of teams that ducked and dodged their way past unseemly run differentials to post winning records isn't rosy in the ensuing season. They could match that in 2022. While Cleveland missed the playoffs last year, they also have finished no lower than third in the AL Central since 2012. The production this season will help set the stage for the next competitive Nationals' team. Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young with a sterling 2.43 ERA, and he was joined in the sub-3.00 ERA club by Brandon Woodruff (2.56) and Freddy Peralta (2.81). All rights reserved. Support FanGraphs. Close. ET, with the prelims on ESPNews/ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. Wed be even higher on this team because of its exciting rotation, if not for the fact Phillys defense is the worst in baseball. But even with Seager gone, Turner shifted from second to shortstop and Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor will occupy second base. They added Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and 2021 All-Stars in Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker Nobody really knows what to make of theAngels. The model is also high on the pitching of the Giants, giving San Francisco a major edge going into the postseason even as a wild-card team. While the signing of Carlos Correa and the trade for Sonny Gray will help, the rest of the team has a lot of question marks, particularly after Berrios was traded midseason last year and Donaldson was traded in the offseason. Standings. The model does not expect the Brewers will emerge back on top in 2022. TEX Texas Rangers. Atlanta can erase some of our concerns by acquiring Matt Olson. Put yourself out there. Meanwhile, ZiPS not only projects the Cards to win a second straight NL Central title but also gives St. Louis the largest margin of victory (seven games) of any of the projected division champions. The rotation could be in tatters behind Zack Wheeler. Toronto hasnt won a playoff game since 2016. Calling up Gabriel Arias could help with that. College Basketball Week 17 Top 25 Predictions Note: Projected winners are listed in bold. Below are the picks and predictions made by The Sporting News' model for how the 2022 MLB season is . ZiPS projects the White Sox for 74 wins, closer to the Tigers (71) and Royals (70) than the Guardians (83) and Twins (80). MLB. I'm more a fan of being right and this one was just pulling me in. But more than anything, the model is high on the pitching, with Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery and a healthy Luis Severino leading the team in 2022. 15 seasons. Bryan Reynolds was a highlight for the team in 2021 as he earned an All-Star nod, and Ke'Bryan Hayes showed potential to be the next face of the franchise. EX. The odds of winning the pennant tell the story of just how locked down the field sees the 2022 playoff picture. 1. With that said, adding Chris Archer is a nice low-risk, high-reward move that should add more stability to Minnesotas pitching staff. We're on to the American League West in our 2022 MLB standings predictions. The Piratesremain fully in rebuild mode, but the young talent in the system is starting to reach the big leagues. MLB insider Bob Nightengale examines if the fans will forgive league for ugly offseason. There is going to be some competition in Texas soon enough for the AL West crown. A lineup that already featured the reigning MVP in Bryce Harper added the dynamic bat of Nick Castellanos and left-handed slugger Kyle Schwarber. 5 starter. We also like Clevelands pitching. There are six divisions in the MLB, divided into three . See how your team stacks up against the rest of Major League Baseball with league, division, and playoff standings. Key player: Luis Robert. To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2023 MLB section, register for a free account . The predicted standings for each team are the average wins and losses in the 20,000 simulations. The Orioleshope to see top prospect Adley Rutschman soon (but not too soon) and are going to lose 100 games again but have players worth watching inCedric Mullins andRyan Mountcastle. Considering the Cincinnati Reds are shopping their starting pitchers and trimming payroll, they belong in the ignore tier for the 2022 season. For now, well be focused on development for the young pitchers and the eventual debuts of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. Despite believing that the Astros are more likely to win the pennant, it sees the Rays as a slightly more likely team to win the World Series. I don't buy the Padres or Giants as 90-plus win teams, either. Even over 162 games, surprises abound. 3. The Marinerswere the feel-good story of 2021, when out of nowhere, they rose up to post a 90-win season and nearly reach the postseason. The reason for the model's lack of trust in them in 2022? The Cubsare engaging in a rebuild/reload to try and keep the team competition, while also building up its young core again. The rotation is still thin and the bullpen is a mess, so they will fall short of being swept in the 2022 MLB postseason. The Chicago White Sox can start looking at designs for their 2022 AL Central champions shirts and hats. As part of our year-round MLB coverage, we'll provide analysis, the latest news and MLB trade rumors . 5 min read. Case in point, Jon Lester had a 4.36 ERA compared to a 5.40 FIP in 12 starts last season after they acquired him and he's now retired. The Duke Blue Devils (22-8, 13-6 ACC) finish the season against the North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11, 11-8) Saturday in Chapel Hill. The GB column is an abbreviation for Games Back and it shows how far teams are behind the leader of the division or put simply, first place. From back-to-back division champions to the cellar, the Twins'tumble in 2021 came as a shock after looking like a dominant team in each of the prior two years. The system also thinks theres still a gulf between the Dodgers and Padres, projecting Los Angeles for 96.1 wins and the Padres for 92.6. filling out their roster with solid role players. Milwaukee had a relatively quiet offseason after finishing seven games behind St. Louis last season, but PECOTA projects the team's vaunted pitching staff to allow . Joey Votto continues to produce at a star talent, but heading into his age 38 campaign, the model expects some regression to take a toll. That's because Major League Baseball is on a run of 100-win teams. MLB predictions for the AL East are the most fun, theyll even vary on a weekly basis. You famously cannot predict baseball. Jose Altuve continues to hit, and the cast around around him continues to get younger. MORE:Trading for Matt Chapman a better fit for rising Blue Jays than signing Freddie Freeman. 2 spot. The Braves, on the other hand, werent a major player in free agency. It also highlights the risk of a starting rotation with so many durability worries. Below are the picks and predictions made by The Sporting News' model for how the 2022 MLB season is going to unfold. For anyone followingthe Reds, this has been a puzzling offseason. We saw the Houston Astros add another division title to their collection last season despite the surprise surge from the Seattle Mariners. Tampa Bay Rays We felt great about New Yorks rotation trio and even liked some of the depth behind it. It was a surprise to see theCubs spendsemi-big onSeiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman and Chicago enters the new season with most of the roster turned over Cincinnati stayed in the hunt into September last season, but now they'vetraded Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker andEugenio Suarez. With Freddie Freeman joining the mix, the Dodgers are undoubtedly the best team in MLB. The 2022 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us. I don't think they are bottom-feeder level (Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), though. MLB.com. This section is showing information that is up to date as of the end of the 2022 MLB season. Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez aren't far away from reaching the majors, and bats like Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle have already proven they can mash in the big leagues. Instead, the club went 81-81 and missed the postseason, finishing 11 games behind the upstart Guardians. Dropping $500 million on a new middle infield (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien)got plenty of attention for the Rangers An ongoing clearance sale has the Athletics expected to finish last,but Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas give Oakland a little bit of upward mobility if they don't get shipped off, too. PECOTA, however, sees a sizable gap of roughly five games between them, with the Mets on top. Sticky standings Sticky standings. Chicago White Sox. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted After all, the Friars signed Xander Bogaerts, will be getting back Fernando Tatis Jr. from injury/suspension and will benefit from having Juan Soto and Josh Hader for a full season after acquiring both at the 2022 Trade Deadline. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Someone is going to have to take the crown away fromthe Astrosbefore anyone, even the model, would consider picking against them. . 2023 Playoff Odds, . They battled through adversity and were able to outlast the Houston Astros en route to a world series trophy. Three key contributors in the lineup Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski are 30 or older, and while they aren't getting younger, their bats certainly did not appear any slower in 2021. There were three last season. The retirement of Buster Posey will usher in the Joey Bart era behind the plate. Copyright 2023 Sporting News Holdings Limited. . It's hard to see that changing in 2022 with a new crop of players in the AL Central. There are two MVP candidates in the lineup and the Trevor Story signing creates one of the best infield in MLB. The NL Central hasnt had a repeat champion since the Cubs in 2016-17, and PECOTA expects that trend to continue in 2023, giving the Brewers a two-game edge over the Cardinals. Putting the Houston Astros atop the AL West in our MLB predictions today was easy. The bullpen is, well, the Phillies bullpen. The rotation is strong, especially after signing Carlos Rodn. Opening Day is set for Thursday (for 14 teams, at least), and thankfully for baseball fans, we'll still have a full, 162-game season in 2022. Only enabled for screen sizes > 1024px. This article lays out all of our preseason MLB team ratings and projections for 2022, including our MLB projected standings, MLB postseason seed projections and various projection details such as final win-loss records, playoff chances, and World Series win odds. And I'd win the under. But as you might expect, they don't agree on everything. We do like the Sean Manaea addition, it solidifies one of the best rotations in baseball. With the exception of a 107-win season from the Giants in 2021, the Dodgers have owned the NL West for the past decade. It does not expect full seasons out of both Trout and Ohtani, who have not in their four years together each had seasons where they both appeared in at least 120 games. They'll be one of the best home teams in baseball this year. Mookie Betts felt quiet in 2021, but he's still one of baseball's best at the dish. With just days to go until Opening Day, hope is high among all teams that this will be their year to win a World Series or at least have an enjoyable 162-game season. MLB Playoff Predictor (MLB Season Picker) lets you pick every game of the MLB Season via a season Schedule . Trained by Michael McCarthy, Lugan Knight has two wins, one second and . Major League Baseball's arduous 2021-22offseason featured a 99-day lockout that ultimately resulted in an abbreviated spring training and a delayed Opening Day. Mega Picker; . As part of our year-round MLB coverage, well provide analysis, the latest news and MLB trade rumors. The Rays have won the division two years in a rowbut didn't do much to upgrade,and have a lot riding on Wander Franco (and his new 11-year, $182 million contract)taking a significant step forward Yankees fans may have hated the offseason, but the team didn't get significantly worse over the winter. Jesse Yomtov. It might sound like an easy pick after the Padres went 79-83 last season and now are going to be without Fernando Tatis, Jr. for weeks or even months. Tyler Stephenson finishes with 20+ home runs, 80+ runs, and 80+ RBIs. Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon showed they can make a promising tandem fans of the franchise can build around. And with Michael Kopech and Liam Hendriks at the backend of the bullpen, they could be a real weapon to end games in the playoffs.